India’s inflation can remain below 4% in the first half of FY26: SBI reportNew Delhi [India]April 7 (ANI): Inflation in India can remain under the first half of the financial year in the first half of the financial year 2025-26 (FY26), said a report from State Bank of India (SBI).
This is possible the first time that inflation has remains below 4 percent for two quarters in a row in recent years.
The report said: “US has imposed mutual rates on many economies that are more than those of India …. this will increase the fear of dumping through these countries in India, resulting in lower inflation.”
It noted that the inflation of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to fall to 3.8 percent in the fourth quarter of FY25. For the full year FY25, the average inflation can be around 4.6 percent.
Based on this trend, SBI expects inflation in FY26 to fall at 3.9-4.0 percent. The core inflation, which excludes food and fuel prices, will probably remain in the range of 4.2-4.3 percent.
The report also said that the inflation of the headline will continue to go down until September or October 2025. Then there is a possibility that it can rise again.
It also pointed to a global factor that could influence India’s inflation. The United States have imposed mutual rates on different countries. These rates are higher than that India has placed.
As a result, there is a fear that other countries can dump their goods in India at cheaper prices. This can lead to a further decrease in inflation levels in the country.
The report also gave an update on India’s balance in the current account of India. Based on the latest data on trade and services, it is expected that the current account of India will be in the fourth quarter of FY25 in the fourth quarter.
India’s slowness in the current account (CAD) in the third quarter of FY25 on USD 11.5 billion. This was 1.1 percent of GDP of the country. It was slightly higher than the CAD of USD 10.4 billion (also 1.1 percent of GDP) in the same quarter last year, but lower than the shortage of USD 16.7 billion (1.8 percent of GDP) seen in the second quarter of FY25.
The trade deficit of the merchandise rose in the third quarter from FY25 to USD 79.2 billion from USD 71.6 billion in the same period of the previous year. Net -Services income, however, increased to USD 51.2 billion from USD 45.0 billion a year ago, which improved the overall situation in the current account. (ANI)
