On Monday, the copper contract of three months on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was quoted at $ 9,238 per ton after an increase of $ 9,271.5 | Photocredit: Istock
The demand for the buyer is likely to be subjected because of the constant trade war between the US and China and the misery of the Chinese real estate sector, analysts said.
This influences all bullish prospects for the red metal, although it is currently back from a sharp fall that was observed early this month.
On Monday, the copper three -month contract on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was quoted at $ 9,238 per ton after an increase of $ 9,271.5. Copper has been won almost 15 percent since the beginning of 2025, although it has parried a month by month of 7.5 percent.
Drags through worries
“We revise from our average annual copper price forecast from 2025 to $ 9,500/ton from $ 10,000, with our prospects that lean to a bearish attitude in the coming months, since the Chinese real estate sector remains in the Doldrums, the Trade Controls and the US-China Trade War on the trade instance.
The copper prices have an average of $ 9,385/ton in the year until 9 April. They are dragged down by concern about slower global growth, including in China, after the escalation in Tit-for-Tat rates between Washington and Beijing.
“The copper prices have risen by 11 percent since the beginning of 2025, driven by a strong Chinese and American demand. Prices are expected to be an average of $ 9,570 per ton in 2025 and will increase to $ 9,870 per ton in real terms,” said Australia’s office of the Chief Economist (AOCE).
Uncertainty in abundance
Consider the economic and financial analysis wing of the Dutch multinational financial services, said: “But it is clear that there is still a lot of uncertainty, because rates against important metal consumers, China, are increased to 125 percent. A long -term trade war would drag on consumer confidence, the risk of the demand for rough materials.”
The copper prices started the year on a strong memorandum and reached $ 10,112 on 25 March after he was marked at the end of February as the next target of Trump for rates. It led to an American copper pressed. However, the prices are under pressure as a result of an imminent decline in demand due to growth relocation in large markets, according to BMI.
Ing Think said, however, that the prospect of a long -term trade war has also set expectations for Beijing to reveal more aggressive stimulus measures. This can record the disadvantage of copper and other industrial metals.
The three -month break in the rates of Trump has fueled a auxiliary prally to a certain extent, but full recovery is far away, BMI said.
Do not completely earn back
“The relocation (break of 3 months) has illuminated immediate trade tensions and supported risk assets worldwide …, investors are monitoring this week between the US and important partners, including Japan, India and South Korea,” said the Commercial economy website.
BMI said, however, that despite the announcement of Trump’s tariff break (except China), the buyer was unable to fully earn back losses, and the constant economic uncertainty is expected to keep the market on sharply, so that the demand prospects are challenged.
Copper prices have been won of expectations that the US can still impose metal -specific rates on national security grounds. This has widened the premium of the American copper futures above comparable London Metal Exchange contracts, because potential trade barriers are in danger of tensioning the already limited copper melting capacity of America, Commercial economy said.
The AOCE said that the copper prices are expected to rise as a result of the high demand for technologies with low emissions, rising data centers and continuous urbanization. A tight concentrate market will support price profits, said it.
Assumption
BMI said that a further reduction in the uncertainty of trade policy, if different countries succeed in concluding deals with the US, reducing the downward pressure on global growth and in turn would place a floor under copper prices. “Even then, challenges for the demand prospects will remain because the Chinese growth of GDP in 2025 slows up to 4 percent.
The research agency said that his price prediction for the buyer assumes that the prices are supported in the second half of the year, as soon as the American Fed starts to lower the rates, resulting in a weaker dollar, so that the buyer could remain in 2026.
Published on April 14, 2025
