Oil rises more than 2% on low US crude demand, delay in OPEC+ production increase, Brent recovers from 6% decline to $73/barrel

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Oil prices rebounded on Wednesday, rising more than 2% after data showed U.S. crude and gasoline inventories fell unexpectedly last week and after reports that OPEC+ could delay a planned increase in oil production.

After falling more than 6% earlier this week on reduced risk of a broader war in the Middle East, Brent crude oil futures rose $1.81, or 2.5%, to $72.93 a barrel at 11:30 a.m. EDT (1530 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose $1.85, or 2.8%, to $69.06.

U.S. gasoline inventories unexpectedly fell to their lowest level in two years last week on stronger demand, the Energy Information Administration said, while crude inventories also saw a surprise decline as imports fell.

U.S. crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia fell to their lowest since January 2021 last week, at just 13,000 barrels per day, down from 150,000 barrels per day the week before. Crude oil imports from Canada, Iraq, Colombia and Brazil all fell this week, the EIA said.

“The most supportive element was gasoline inventories falling week on week, while implied demand rose week on week; lower imports helped crude inventories post a small decline,” said Matt Smith, analyst at Kpler.

Reuters reported that OPEC+, which brings together the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, could delay a planned oil production increase in December by a month or more due to concerns about weak oil demand and rising supply.

“OPEC+ has always advised that the phasing out of voluntary supply cuts would be dependent on market conditions,” said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of research at Onyx Capital Group.

The group will increase production by 180,000 barrels per day (bpd) in December. OPEC+ has cut production by 5.86 million barrels per day, equivalent to about 5.7% of global oil demand.

A decision to delay the increase could come as early as next week, two OPEC+ sources told Reuters.

“That they may be reconsidering the timing of a barrel return is not surprising given weak macroeconomic realities, especially in China, which have led to downward revisions to global demand growth estimates.”

OPEC+ will meet on December 1 to decide next policy steps.

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