JP Morgan projected that the United States will slide into a recession by the end of 2025, so that the fall largely attributes to the newly announced mutual rates of President Donald Trump. The prediction comes days after Trump has imposed radical tasks on imports in an attempt to re -balance trade tires, with further increases aimed at countries with large trade shortages in the US, including India.
In a note Friday, Michael Feroli, head -American economist at JP Morgan, wrote that the gross domestic product of America will probably shrink “under the weight of the rates”. He also warned that the resulting economic delay is expected to “push the unemployment rate up to 5.3 [percent]”According to the hill.
The worries were reflected by the American Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell, who said that the rates could practice a heavier blow to the economy than previously estimated. During a business journalism conference on Friday, Powell said: “Although the uncertainty remains increased, it now becomes clear that the tariff increases will be considerably larger than expected. The same probably applies to the economic effects, including higher inflation and slower growth.”
According to the new policy, a rate of 10% applies to all imports from 5 April. From 9 April, countries with the largest US trade shortages – among them India – will be confronted with higher, adapted taxes. India will see a rate of 26% for all its exports.
Despite this sharp walk, Jefferies brokerage firm said that the effect on the outgoing trade of India can be limited. In a customer memorandum, the company pointed out that large Indian export sectors – such as IT services, pharmaceutical products and cars – are not directly affected by the rate – uscalation.
“The rates of 27 percent (now corrected in a document up to 26 percent) look reasonable from a relative perspective. Greater concerns are about weaker American economic prospects, which is one for IT services and other exporters,” Jefferies noted. Although the company has played direct rate consequences, it warned that a broader American delay on the demand for Indian exports can weigh, especially in technology services.
The global economic prospects are now confronted with further pressure as companies brace themselves for the step -by -step effects of the escalating American trade war.
