India’s exports of petroleum products rose year-on-year, helped by higher outbound shipments of gasoline, aviation turbine fuel (ATF) and fuel oil.
Exports of refined products provisionally rose 12.7 percent year-on-year to 5.05 million tonnes (MT), according to the Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell (PPAC). On a monthly basis, shipments fell by 22.2 percent.
Exports of POL products rose 4.2 percent year-on-year to 36.76 tonnes during April-October FY25, largely due to increase in outbound cargo of petcoke, fuel oil, petrol and jet fuel.
Xavier Tang, market analyst at Vortexa, said India’s exports of refined products rose 20 percent year-on-year in October 2024, mainly due to increased exports of petrol, jet/kero and fuel oil.
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“Export growth appears high on an annual basis due to lower export figures in October 2023; But in October 2024, exports have fallen slightly compared to the average volumes in the first nine months of the year,” he said. business line.
According to data from the Energy Intelligence Agency, diesel exports rose 6.2 percent year-on-year to about 554,511 barrels per day (b/d) in October 2024. However, on a monthly basis, shipments fell 16.6 percent.
Export shipments of gasoline or motor fuel (MS) rose by as much as 104.5 percent year-on-year and 9.1 percent month-on-month to 402,845 b/d in the same period, Vortexa data showed.
On the other hand, jet fuel shipments fell 30.6 percent month-on-month to 159,971 b/d in October. However, on an annual basis, freight was 32.4 percent higher.
On the diesel export scenario in Asia, Tang said diesel/gasoil exports to Asia have increased since August and reached over 100,000 barrels per day in October.
“A closed east-west diesel trade (arbitrage) to Europe, coupled with tighter diesel supplies in Asia due to several unplanned refinery outages, has prompted Indian refiners to export more diesel/gasoil to Asia. More Indian diesel/gasoil cargoes have been loaded to Asia this month, with limited arbitrage opportunities to Europe,” he explained.
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After hitting a six-month high in September 2024, Indian diesel exports are expected to lose momentum during the festival season, driven by weakening price arbitrage in Europe amid expectations of higher domestic consumption during the period October to December 2024.
According to Vortexa, strong exports were driven by weak domestic demand (India) due to the monsoons, and by an open diesel arbitrage to Europe amid refinery maintenance in the region. With domestic demand in India expected to pick up from October and European refinery maintenance easing, Indian diesel exports to Europe could slow down in the coming months.
“Our preliminary data shows that India’s exports of refined products in November are at the same level as in October, but lower year-on-year. Higher domestic demand boosted by the festive season, coupled with weak export margins, especially to the west, is likely to keep India’s refined products exports in check in December,” Tang said.
