The country’s real GDP growth for the December quarter is expected to reach a higher-than-expected 7 percent, a German broker said on Monday. “We forecast real GDP to have grown at an annualized rate of 7.0 percent for the quarter in October-December 2023, above what we previously expected,” Deutsche Bank analysts said. The official quarterly growth figures will be announced on February 29. In the three months ending September 2023, the economy had achieved growth of 7.6 percent.
The German brokerage said its estimate is based on a proprietary index of five high-frequency indicators, including industrial production, exports, non-oil non-gold imports, bank credits and consumer goods. It said another indicator, comprising nearly 65 high-frequency indicators, also points to 7 percent growth for the December quarter. “The Indian economy has shown remarkable resilience despite last year’s Russia-Ukraine war and the Covid-19 crisis before that, with growth momentum holding up much better than expected,” the report said.
Corporate sector data shows that gross profit momentum has remained strong, leading to expectations that the real gross value added of the industrial sector will be around 7-8 percent in the October-December period. The broker said it will revise its FY24 growth estimate of 6.8 percent after releasing the official data on February 29. In the long term, India is likely to achieve real GDP growth of at least 6-6.5 percent, which is significantly higher. than comparable emerging markets over the next two decades, the brokerage said. The same was attributed to the reform agenda aimed at formalisation, digitalisation, privatisation, urbanisation, liberalization of the financial sector and boosting India’s infrastructure and industrial base.
