New Delhi, while American tariff increases remain an important risk for the growth spelling growth, the global creditworthiness agency Crisil expected on Monday 6.5 percent GDP growth for India in tax 2026, with risks tilted to the disadvantage.
Crisil expects the monetary relaxation of the RBI to create a number of offset for the external headwind.
“Interest rates, lighting of income tax and alleviating inflation is expected to deliver tail winds to use this tax, while the expected normal monsoon will support agricultural income,” the report said.
Moreover, the expected decrease in global prices for crude oil, as a result of a potential global delay, is expected to be added to the domestic growth.
That said, American tariff increases are an important risk for the GDP growth fever of Crisil for Fiscal 2026, because uncertainty about the duration and frequent changes in rates can hinder investments.
In FY25, improved growth in capital, the production of infrastructure and construction goods in the second half on a gradual collection of the activity of construction/capital expenditure in the last part of the tax.
Finally, other high -frequency indicators show that growth prospects improve in the fourth quarter.
The latest RBI ‘Quarterly Industrial Outlook’ survey shows a successive reinforcement of demand in the fourth quarter (Q4 FY25).
“The newest RBI Consumer Confidence Survey indicates an improvement in March, both in national and urban areas. All these factors confirm the recovery of domestic demand. Healthy Rabi output and relieving inflation in the fourth quarter also predicting the demand of the consumption,” the report said.
Industrial growth, measured by the industrial production (IIP) index, delayed in February to 2.9 percent of 5.2 percent in January (revised 5.0 percent), driven by a lower output growth in mining and production sectors, while electricity registered an increasing.
“On average, the IIP growth was 4.0 percent in the fourth quarter from February, broadly registered with the 4.1 percent in the quarter of December,” said Crisil.
With data that is now available for eleven months of FY25, the underlying momentum can be emphasized within sub-sectors IIP. The IIP production performed better in the second half of the tax 2025 on average. This increased growth in segments such as petroleum products, machines and textiles during the second half.
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