The BRICS+ group’s share of global goods exports could overtake the G7 bloc by 2026, EY India said on Wednesday. The October edition of EY Economy Watch reveals a significant shift in global trade dynamics, with the BRICS+ group rapidly increasing its share of goods exports and imports.
From 2000 to 2023, the BRICS+ group’s share of global goods exports increased from 10.7 percent to 23.3 percent, an impressive increase of 12.6 percentage points.
In contrast, the G7’s share has seen a notable decline: from 45.1 percent to 28.9 percent. Meanwhile, the rest of the world has maintained a relatively stable share, rising slightly from 44.2 percent to 47.9 percent.
The G7 is a group of advanced economies: the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom.
This trend highlights the growing prominence of the BRICS+ group in the global trade arena, signaling a possible shift towards a multipolar global economic landscape, EY India said.
“Given current trends and the likelihood of several new members joining the BRICS+ group, BRICS+’s share of global merchandise exports could overtake that of the G7 group by 2026,” said DK Srivastava, chief policy advisor, EY India .
BRICS, consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, has now expanded to include five additional members: Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
At the center of this transformation are India and China, two key members of the BRICS+ alliance. In 2023, they ranked third and first respectively globally in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP). Both countries are expected to maintain this position in 2030.
China’s contribution to BRICS+ exports has increased dramatically, from 36.1 percent in 2000 to 62.5 percent in 2023. India has also made significant progress, contributing 7.9 percent to BRICS+ exports in 2023.
EY’s analysis further underlines the increasing importance of high-tech exports from BRICS+ countries.
The group’s share of global high-tech exports has increased significantly, from just 5 percent in 2000 to 32.8 percent in 2022.
This shift reflects a strategic move towards technology-intensive products, positioning BRICS+ countries as vital players in the global high-tech market, it added.
In addition to trade dynamics, the currencies of the BRICS+ countries are gaining strength in the global economy. The yuan has remained stable, with a slight appreciation, while the Indian rupee has suffered depreciation mainly since 2018.
Notably, the share of the US dollar as a global reserve currency has fallen from 71.5 percent in 2000 to 58.2 percent in 2024, indicating a possible shift towards a more multipolar currency framework.
“As geopolitical tensions continue, coordinated policies among BRICS+ members could challenge the established dominance of the G7 and the US dollar, paving the way for a new multipolar global economic landscape,” Srivastava said.
The BRICS+ group is establishing a platform for conducting international trade and investment transactions, which could become a low-cost alternative to the existing SWIFT platform.
The group is also developing a trading and reserve currency backed by gold and other select commodities, Srivastava added.
