New Delhi: Despite a slowdown in real GDP growth, India’s nominal GDP per capita is expected to rise significantly in FY25, by at least Rs 35,000 more than FY23, economists say.
The First Advance Estimate (AE) of GDP for FY25 by the National Bureau of Statistics (NSO) indicates a GDP growth of 6.4 percent. Growth in gross added value (GVA) is also estimated at 6.4 percent. Nominal GDP growth is estimated to remain flat, rising by 9.7 percent in FY25 (9.6 percent in FY24).
“Historically, the difference between the RBI estimate and the NSO estimate has always been in the range of 20 to 30 basis points and therefore the 6.4 percent estimate for FY25 is on the expected and reasonable lines . However, we believe GDP growth for FY25 could be around 25 percent. 6.3 per cent, with a downward trend,” said Dr Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser, State Bank of India.
“Supported by robust policy measures and overlapping phygital public infrastructure creation, coupled with the formalization of finance, agriculture and allied activities are likely to grow by 3.8 percent in FY25 (1.4 percent last year),” said Dr. Ghosh.
The services sector, on the other hand, is likely to grow 7.2 percent in FY25, compared to 7.6 percent growth in FY24.
The heads that have made a positive contribution include government consumption with a growth of 8.5 percent in nominal terms (4.1 percent in real terms), while exports have also maintained the strongest side with a positive growth of 8 percent (5.9 percent in real terms). .
According to MOFSL Group Chief Economist Nikhil Gupta, NSO estimates point to a revival in consumption and moderation in investment in the second half of FY25.
“Private consumption is likely to grow at an annual rate of 7.8 percent in the second half of FY25 (vs. 6.7 percent/4 percent in the first half of FY2024), government consumption is estimated to grow at 6.1 percent in the second half of the year (versus 2 percent/2.5 percent) and total investments are expected to rise 5.8 percent versus 6.5 percent/9.4 percent,” said Gupta.
Rajani Sinha, chief economist at CareEdge Ratings, said consumption growth is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year compared to the first half.
“Healthy agricultural growth and a likely moderation in food inflation should help boost consumption in the coming months. Sustained consumption growth will also help attract private investment,” she said.
-IANS
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