India, which accounts for a quarter of global crude oil consumption growth, is expected to overtake China as the top source of growth in the current and next calendar years.
According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), rising demand for transportation fuels as the domestic economy grows, and growing fuel consumption in Indian kitchens, is driving growth for the world’s third-largest importer.
“India has emerged as the leading source of global oil consumption growth in 2024 and 2025, overtaking China this year, according to our December Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO),” the US government agency said.
China’s oil consumption grew more than India’s almost every year from 1998 through 2023, with oil consumption regularly growing more than any other country in those years, it added.
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“In 2024 and 2025, India will be responsible for 25 percent of the total global oil consumption growth. We expect an increase of 0.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) in global liquid fuel consumption in 2024. We expect even more growth next year, with global oil consumption increasing by 1.3 mb/d.” , the American EIA predicted.
Driven by rising demand for transportation fuels and home cooking fuels, liquid fuel consumption in India is expected to increase by 220,000 barrels per day in 2024 and 330,000 barrels per day in 2025. This growth is the largest of any country in the US. EIA’s forecast for each of the years, it added.
“We forecast that China’s liquid fuel consumption will grow by 90,000 barrels per day in 2024, before increasing by 250,000 barrels per day in 2025. Slowing economic growth has limited growth in transportation fuel consumption,” the report said.
Most of China’s growth is the result of increasing oil use for petrochemical production, the agency added.
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“Although India’s growth, both percentage and volume, exceeds China’s growth in our forecast, China still consumes significantly more oil,” the report said.
India’s total liquid fuel consumption was 5.3 million barrels per day in 2023, while China consumed more than triple that amount in 2023, at 16.4 million barrels per day, based on estimates in the US STEO December EIA, the agency said.
